Susan Granger’s Oscar Predictions

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Unfortunately, the scheduling of the 98^th Academy Awards on March 15 makes them seem like yesterday’s news or “Groundhog Day” — yet here we are …

After #OscarsSoWhite protests and pleas for a more diverse membership, there’s been a huge shift, leading to more global participation. Instead of American studios competing with one another, the focus is now on international cinema.

A landmark four non-English-language performances earned acting nominations, and international cinema placed two films in both Best Picture and International Feature for the second straight year.

Academy membership was once around 6,000 voters; now it’s closer to 11,000, voting in 24 categories. Cinephiles come from different cultures and speak different languages.

Winning is still important, perhaps even more so during this unstable time, particularly for talent. The cachet of an Oscar helps in negotiating contacts and achieving recognition.

Something else is new this year: starting this awards season, the Academy requires members to prove they’ve viewed every nominated film in a given category before casting final ballots. Viewing is automatically tracked on the Academy Screening Room streaming platform and needs to be reported if viewed elsewhere. Unfortunately, however, there’s no way to actually verify all claims.

Best Picture

After victories at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Critics Choice and BAFTA, the obvious frontrunner is Paul Thomas Anderson’s timely, relevant “One Battle After Another” about authoritarianism and citizen resistance in an out-of-control police state.

But don’t discount Ryan Coogler’s blues-steeped vampire horror epic “Sinners” that shattered a long-time Oscar nomination record, earning 16 — the most nominations for a single movie in Academy history. (“All About Eve,” “La La Land” and “Titanic” got 14), sweeping the SAG/AFTRA awards.

My choice would be Chloe Zhao’s Shakespearean fable “Hamnet,” winner of AARP’s Best Picture for Grown-Ups. But missing nominations for Editing and Paul Mescal for Supporting Actor torpedoed its Best Picture chances.

The most popular import seems to be “Sentimental Value,” Joachim Trier’s Norwegian family drama; it obviously appeals to actors who constitute the Academy’s largest branch.

There’s also “Train Dreams,” an elegiac look at an itinerant logger at the turn of the 20^th century; it won Best Picture, Best Director and Best Cinematography at the Independent Spirit Awards.

Also nominated but not worth wagering on are “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” and “The Secret Agent.”

My prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Director, Actress, Actor

Best Director: This year, the focus is clearly on Paul Thomas Anderson for “One Battle After Another.” In past years, he’s been nominated five times for writing, three for directing and three for best picture.

Other nominees are Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”) and Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet).

My prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley’s BAFTA-winning performance in “Hamnet” has the most propulsion but Rose Byrne’s in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” makes her a contender, particularly after her win at the Independent Spirit Awards.

It’s been 25 years since she received her only Oscar nomination for playing Penny Lane in “Almost Famous,” so it’s impossible not to root for Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue” but she’s a longshot, as are Renate Reinseve as an actress who can’t connect with her director father in “Sentimental Value” and previous two-time winner Emma Stone as a kidnapped pharmaceutical CEO in “Bugonia.”

My prediction: Jessie Buckley

Best Actor: At first glance, the race seemed to be between Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”). But then Michael B. Jordan, celebrating his first Oscar nomination, won the SAG/AFTRA Best Actor award playing brothers Smoke and Stack, developing distinctive characteristics for his twin characters.

I’d hoped Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) might be a spoiler, and there’s no question that voters loved Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”), the first Brazilian nominee in this category.

My prediction: Michael B. Jordan

Supporting

Best Supporting Actress: It’s either Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) or Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”). Honored to be nominated are Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”).

While veteran Amy Madigan scored with SAG/AFTRA as a soul-sucking sorceress and Nigerian-British Wunmi Mosaku won a BAFTA as a Hoodoo practitioner in the Jim Crow South, Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor could go home with the trophy as a revolutionary who doesn’t let motherhood slow down her fight because this award often favors newcomers.

My prediction: Amy Madigan

Best Supporting Actor: Nominees are Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), and Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”).

As Col. Lockjaw, the racist, despicable military man who hunts down revolutionaries, SAG/AFTRA winner Sean Penn is up for his third Oscar but his castmate, previous winner Benicio De Toro could siphon some votes. The SAG/AFTRA winner has gone on to win the Oscar 22 times in the last 31 years. But there’s Jacob Elordi’s heartbreaking transformation into Frankenstein’s monster and, like Delroy Lindo and Stellan Skarsgard, it’s his first nomination.

My prediction: Sean Penn

International, Animated, Documentary

This year, Best International Feature Film is another tough race. With Best Picture nominations, “Sentimental Value” (Norway) and “The Secret Agent” (Brazil) are clearly frontrunners but don’t discount “It Was Just An Accident” (France), “Sirat” (Spain) and “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia).

The tightest contest is “Sentimental Value” vs. “The Secret Agent,” both are also nominated for Best Picture but Norway’s family drama also has four acting nominees.

My prediction: “Sentimental Value”

Best Animated: Nominees are “Arco,” “Elio,” “KPop Demon Hunters,” “Little Amelie or the Character of Rain,” and “Zootopia 2.”

Blending supernatural protectors with popular Korean music made the computer-animated fantasy “KPop Demon Hunters” a cultural phenomenon and Netflix’s most watched film of all time, delivering a message about overcoming shame and embracing who you are — flaws and all.

My prediction: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Best Documentary: Nominees are “The Alabama Solution,” “Cone See Me in the Good Light,” “Cutting Through Rocks,” “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” and “The “Perfect Neighbor.”

This year’s nominees are subversive and brave, tackling abusive systems, challenging authority and dehumanizing society norms. I favor the one about a teacher who secretly chronicles the militarization of his small Russian school in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

My prediction: “The Perfect Neighbor”

Screenplays, Editing

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nominees are Will Tracy (“Bugonia”), Guillermo Del Toro (“Frankenstein”), Maggie O’ Farrell and Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (“Train Dreams”). Inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland,” After five previous screenplay nominations, Anderson captures idealism and a father’s love.

My prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson for “One Battle After Another”

Best Original Screenplay: Nominees are Robert Kaplow (“Blue Moon”), Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”), Ronald Bernstein and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (“Sentimental Value”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”). Hard-to-beat Coogler delves into the history of Black music, race politics and Black culture, cloaked in a Mississippi vampire tale.

My prediction: Ryan Coogler for “Sinners”

Best Editing: Nominees are Stephen Mirrione (“F1”), Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Andy Jurgensen (“One Battle After Another”), Olivier Bugge (“Sentimental Value”), Michael P. Shawver (“Sinners”).

Perhaps the most convincing scene for this award is the turbulent father-daughter car chase — when the teenager (Chase Infiniti) outsmarts the hired muscle, followed closely by her dad (Leonardo DiCaprio).

My prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Costume, Casting

Best Costume Design: Nominees are Deborah L. Scott (“Avatar: Fire and Ash”), Kate Hawley (“Frankenstein”), Malgosia Turzanska (“Hamnet”), Miyako Bellizzi (“Marty Supreme”), Ruth E. Carter (“Sinners”). Two-time winner Carter is now the most nominated Black woman in Oscar history, yet Hawley captured religion, nature and mythology in her wardrobe work.

My prediction: “Frankenstein”

Best Casting: Nominees are Nina Gold (“Hamnet”), Jennifer Venditti (“Marty Supreme”), Cassandra Kulukundis (“One Battle After Another”), Gabriel Domingues (“The Secret Agent”), Francine Maisler (“Sinners”).

Acknowledging the crucial part casting directors play in creative storytelling by finding actors who fill the bill — this is the first new Oscar category since 2002. Next up? A Stunts category in 2028.

My prediction: “Sinners”

Score, Song, Cinematography

Best Original Score: Nominees are Jerskin Fendrix (“Bugonia”), Alexandre Desplat (“Frankenstein”), Max Richter (“Hamnet”), Jonny Greenwood (“One Battle After Another”), Ludwig Goransson (“Sinners”).

Composer Goransson, a white Swede, and Black musician Raphael Saadiq blended genres and eras in Ryan Coogler’s spiritual blues horror epic.

My prediction: “Sinners”

Best Original Song: “Dear Me” (“Diane Warren: Relentless”), “Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”), “I Lied to You” (“Sinners”), “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (“Viva Verdi!”), “Train Dreams” (“Train Dreams”).

She’s never won but this is Diane Warren’s 17th nomination for Best Song.

My prediction: “Golden”

Best Cinematography: Nominees are “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Train Dreams.” Autumn Durald Arkapaw (“Sinners”) is the first woman of color to be nominated in this category.

My prediction: “One Battle After Another”

Design, Visuals, Makeup & Hair

Best Production Design: Nominees are “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners.”

Tamara Deverell did deep, immersive research to create Frankenstein’s laboratory, replicating the University of Glasgow’s vaulted ceilings and the National Wallace Monument in Stirling.

My prediction: “Frankenstein”

Best Visual Effects: Nominees are “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “F1,” “Jurassic World Rebirth,” “The Lost Bus,” “Sinners.”

Fire replaces water as the elemental character in James Cameron’s latest epic. It’s weaponized by the volcano-dwelling Ash people in their war against the Na’vi tribes. Creating realistic-looking fire in CG prompted VFX wizards at New Zealand’s Weta FX to develop Kora, a high-fidelity tool set for physics-based chemical combustion simulations.

My prediction: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Nominees are “Frankenstein,” “Kokuho,” “Sinners,” “The Smashing Machine,” “The Ugly Stepsister.”

Makeup effects veteran Mike Hill transformed Jacob Elordi into the Creature that Victor Frankenstein created; even the scars on his body reflected incisions that those studying human anatomy in the 18th century would have made.

My prediction: “Frankenstein”

Sound, Shorts

Best Sound: Nominees are “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Sirat.” While “Sirat” fielded the first all-woman sound team in Oscar history, sound supervisor Al Nelson and his team got up close and personal with the engines of Mercedes-based cars, racing around the Formula 1 track.

My prediction: “F1”

Best Live Action Short: “Butcher’s Stain,” “Jane Austen’s Period Drama,” “A Friend of Dorothy,” “The Singers,” “Two People Exchanging Saliva.”

My prediction: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Best Animated Short: “Butterfly,” “Forevergreen,” “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” “Retirement Plan,” “The Three Sisters.”

My prediction: “Butterfly”

Best Documentary Short: “All Empty Rooms,” “Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud,” “Children No More: Were and Gone,” The Devil is Busy,” “Perfectly a Strangeness.”

My prediction: “All the Empty Rooms”